Traffic Flow predictions by residents - First response from Council - Not Good !

[Alison Bond]

LATEST ATTACHMENT ADDED 15TH AUGUST - COUNCIL RESPONSE IMPLIES 3 SECOND GAPS BETWEEN CARS IS ACCEPTABLE !!  READ ATTACHMENT BELOW.
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In the attachments below this text box you will find traffic flow data as provided by SCC Highways department and if we receive any other data that will help us decide our views it will be posted in this section.

Russells Crescent_Traffic Flows - Modelled traffic flow in Russells Crescent before and after the proposed changes, as provided by Emily Mottram on 30th June 2008

Estimation of Trips_AB 14 07 08 - Modelled traffic flow for Russells Crescent and other roads before and after the proposed changes, as provided by Emily Mottram on 14th July 2008

Below are some contextual remarks made by Emily Mottram in the cover email sent with with data:
I would make the following comments on the data:

These predicted figures are clearly estimates and the reason we are
keen to implement a trial is to assess in more detail the traffic
impacts.  As discussed we would agree the methodology for this with
yourselves in advance if a trail were to proceed.

The figures shown are very much worst case scenario.  It is likely for
instance that some vehicles that travel southbound along Victoria Road
will transfer to Consort Way East. The figures do not take account of
traffic rerouting, the impact of traffic calming, junction realignment
and modal shift. 

Some of these figures vary slightly from the original numbers I gave
you. The new figures are trying to simplify the redistribution of
traffic within the town centre. 

Regards

Emily Mottram
Project Manager - Horley Regeneration

[Robin Colwyn]

Traffic flow data only refers to Russells Crescent. Where do the architects of this scheme think traffic will go once it reaches the Russells Crescent/Massetts Road junction? If it turns left to the A23, then it will already be using this route today. If it wants to continue towards Vicarage Lane, it has three options:

1. Turn left down Massetts Road, right into The Avenue, and right onto Brighton Road at the junction with Church Road. This is an uncontrolled junction with five entrance/exit points and an accident history.

2. Turn right into Massetts Road to the town centre traffic lights, then left into Victoria Road and continue on its original route - but this will also have constraints on its width as part of this ill-conceived scheme.

3. Turn right into Massetts Road, then immediately left into Ringley Avenue, a quiet residential road part of which is in the Conservation Area. The Ringley Avenue/Church Road junction at its far end is a dangerous junction with very poor sighting of approaching traffic, cars parked directly opposite the junction in marked parking bays, making it single-lane flow. Church Road itself is often single lane traffic with parked cars along its length, particularly near the shops at the Victoria Road end.

The other route, via Massetts Road to the A23 traffic lights is not available as there is no right turn at this junction.

Where is the traffic flow modelling after leaving Russells Crescent?

[Alison Bond]

Robin - we have requested your traffic flow data for other roads in the minutes of the meeting on Monday - let us hope they deliver it quickly to us!

With regards to traffic flow data, for those residents who do not know this, we did some traffic counts in 15 minute bursts to assess the variation in traffic flow during a peak period and it was significant. The peak of a peak period was +70% the average of the peak period.  My husband (a data modeller and statistician) has modelled these peaks and now predicts that at the heaviest periods cars will pass our houses with 2.5 seconds or less between them.  At certain peak times we could be waiting 15 minutes to get out of our driveways!!

We presented these predictions to the council and they have taken our figures away to examine.

[Alison Bond]

The response from the Council to the traffic flow data presented by residents at the 28th July meeting is attached here.  They appear to be saying all our calculations are mere speculation, as are their own, and therefore that a trial is essential.

They also suggest 3 seconds gaps between cars is not unreasonable and state that many houses have big enough driveways to turn cars round in and so avoid backing out onto the road. 

This is not good - but we can study this letter and challenge certain points.  In particular if they wont concede the road capacity is at risk of being exceeded perhaps we can get them to concede that the junction capacity will be exceeded.

Not good but at least we have some kind of a response to argue against, whereas at the meeting they gave no response at all.